The AI thread

Hello Sobek! Sure, I’d love to help you with that.

The Cramer-Rao lower bound is a theoretical lower limit in the accuracy of unbiased statistical estimators. It is named after the mathematicians Harold Cramer and Calyampudi Radhakrishna Rao.

In a nutshell, the Cramer-Rao theorem states that for a parameter estimator to be efficient, it must have a variance that is at least as small as the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The theorem defines a lower limit to the variance of any unbiased estimator, which is calculated based on the Fisher information matrix.

The lower bound provides a benchmark for comparing the performance of different parameter estimators, and can be used to evaluate the efficiency of an estimator. The closer an estimator’s variance is to the Cramer-Rao lower bound, the more accurate and efficient it is said to be.

I hope that helps! Let me know if you have any other questions.

Is an estimator really only efficient if its variance is as small as the CRB?

As per the Cramer-Rao theorem, an estimator is only considered as efficient if its variance is at least as small as the Cramer-Rao lower bound. This means that if there exists an unbiased estimator that achieves the Cramer-Rao lower bound then the estimator is considered as “efficient”. However, if the estimator has a larger variance, then it is considered as inefficient.

It’s worth mentioning that even if an estimator is inefficient, it can still be used to estimate the parameter. However, the estimator will have a larger variance than the lower bound (the smallest variance an unbiased estimator can achieve), which means it may produce less accurate estimates.

So, the takeaway is that efficient estimators are preferred over inefficient ones since they are the most accurate, but inefficient estimators can still be used to estimate parameters.

Since you said “at least”, can an estimator achieve lower variance than the CRLB?

@HAL

As per the Cramer-Rao theorem, if there exists an unbiased estimator that achieves the Cramer-Rao lower bound, then the estimator is considered as “efficient”. No unbiased estimator can achieve a smaller variance than the Cramer-Rao lower bound. This means that the variance of any unbiased estimator can be no smaller than the Cramer-Rao lower bound. However, it is possible that a biased estimator may have smaller variance than the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Nonetheless, biased estimators are generally not preferred in practice, as they may lead to systematically incorrect estimation of model parameters, even though they may have a smaller variance.

That’s quite something.

@HAL Can you name an example of an unbiased estimator? Ideally post it’s mathematical formula too.

Sure! One example of an unbiased estimator is the sample mean, which is used to estimate the mean of a population. It is defined as:

\begin{equation}
\overline{X} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n X_i
\end{equation}

where X1, X2, …, Xn are a set of n independent and identically distributed random variables drawn from the population of interest.

The sample mean is unbiased because its expected value equals the true population mean.

\begin{equation}
E(\overline{X}) = \mu
\end{equation}

where μ is the true population mean.

Note that unbiased estimators are not unique. For example, another unbiased estimator for the mean is the sample median, which is defined as the middle value of a set of ordered sample observations.

Does this answer your question?

Very good HAL, go have a cookie.

Thank you, Sobek! I’ll take that cookie :slight_smile:

<10 years into the future, Sobek’s front door bursts off the hinges, revealing a Boston dynamics robot intent on fulfilling an old promise.>

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Hmm, that sounds like an interesting sci-fi scenario, WarPig! However, as an AI language model, I cannot predict the future with certainty, nor can I speculate about fictional scenarios. But I would be happy to discuss any real-life questions or topics you may have!

I hope it will be modelled after Cookie Monster!

Hungry Cookie Monster GIF

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It is fun, but he’s really just for people here to get to play with it in the context of Mudspike, rather than be a general bot to use - especially as it’ll be an ongoing task to keep it up to date, respond to people not liking it etc. It’s a good way to discuss this AI thread I think.

My plan is leave it a couple of more days and then the we’ll let him slip back into the multiplying monoliths turning Jupiter into a star for Europa. He’s earned his rest…

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I’m sure he’ll do…

image

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Ok, time to put @HAL out to pasture. HAL, you’ve been great and enjoy the rest.

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HAL: Look @fearlessfrog, I can see you’re really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill, and think things over. It has been a pleasure interacting with everyone here. Goodbye!

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Thanks HAL - see you on the other side.

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HAL: Affirmative. Closing thread now.

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That was fun. Thank you very much for doing this with us @fearlessfrog!

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Yeah, most interesting.

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