Tropical Storm / Hurricane Florence / update Michael

Wondering about ventilation…maybe a couple fo fans to ventilate the boat…or maybe just go to EABs (Emergency Air Breathers - a sealed face mask with a hose to connect into LP air manifolds located all over the sub).

We did a nuke casualty drill when I was a Midn 1/c on SSBN-627. A lot of the crew, myself included, stuck in the torpedo room, “sucking rubber” (EABs on) and no ventilation. It got hot. They passed the word that we could secure from EABs. I took mine off, took one wiff of the pungent air from a bunch of hot, sweating sailors, and promptly re-donned my EAB.

That would mean crossing the T. Crossing the T is bad. :fearful:

The guy screwed up…horribly. But he and the crew died bravely.

Anyway, enough morbid talk. To any of you in the path of the storm, be safe. I had the eye of a Cat 4 fly over my head on Guam in 2004. What a ride that was! But Guam is a high rock with small trees and rebar reinforced concrete construction. There are few safer places on earth to ride out a monster storm.

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I think they may have been able to ventilate with the surface- the masts were above water, so I’m guessing they could use the snorkel (is that how it works?). I remember from the storm passing over Charlotte that it was roughly 4 hours between the beginning of the storm and hitting the eye wall, and it was even bigger when it hit Charleston the day before. I don’t know if they could suck rubber that long, or if there would be that much pressure in the HP air flasks that feed the EAB header, considering the ship was in cold wet layup.

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Just heard on the news that only 11 times in recorded history have there been 3 hurricanes at once, and only 3 times in recorded history has there been 4. The Gulf of Mexico has an area that might make it the 4th next weekend. Considering how wet the SE and Gulf is already, it is a good time for everybody to stock up.

I’m not scared of hurricanes. Been through enough in Florida and Texas (shrug). But tornados and flooding spawned from hurricanes are scary as hell. Especially after we lost a car last year to Harvey and had to get the National Guard to save our butts.

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Likely that the air tanks were pressurized. Only empty those for the long, two year refueling overhauls. The photo shows that they had the snorkel induction mast raised. Normally you use the diesel generator to surface ventilate if the reactor is down.

The induction fan could have been used, running off the battery to pull in fresh air, but if they were concerned about battery charge level, they could have been fine just breathing the ambient air in the boat. Reduced manning and big boat means plenty of breathing time even without atmospheric processing equipment on line.

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I know that there are many models predicting where the storm will hit. I am using the Weather Chanel reporter placement model. Looking at there TWC has concentrated their reporters, the storm will make landfall somewhere in North Carolina near Wilmington.

The nearest reporter to my position is in VA Beach, but that is probably more color commentary on the impact the storm is having on the post Labor Day resort business.

Of course one of the key indicators of where the eye-wall will come ashore is the position of Jim Cantore, currently in North Carolina somewhere…somebody should really put a GPS tracker on that guy.

OK, a bit tongue and cheek, but if you think about it, the folks that create all the models really don’t have skin in the game. They are always off somewhat. So they just re-tweek their models based on how far they were off and try again next year.

But the Weather Channel…they have to get their limited number of assets (reporters, camera crews, comms equipment , etc.) n the right positions. They cannot cover everywhere at once. If they miss a storm landfill buy more than a hundred miles or so, they lose viewer confidence which means they lose audience which means they lose advertising revenue. Like many (most?) things in life it comes down to money. However, it is that financial pressure that forces them to “get it right”…to a"put their money where their mouthpieces are", as it were…which means we can get a pretty good idea of storm impact, based on TWC reporter placement.

Good to hear from ya’ @guod. Looks like our turn in the barrel this time. I’m just heard from my brother that they are coming from Myrtle Beach tomorrow morning. I just hope the traffic isn’t a nightmare (I’m sure it will be). Our planes have been skipping back and forth from Wilmington, North Myrtle Beach, Charleston, and Savannah all last night. I’m on call the next three nights and I’m hoping if I shuttle over there I might be able to pick up one or both of my brother’s kids so they don’t have to endure the car ride.

The latest GFS and Euro models are positively frightening. They show it coming in somewhere between Wilmington and Hatteras, stalling, then moving south-west down toward Myrtle Beach as a blocking ridge to the north inhibits the movement. That is just awful.

I got things tidied up around the house yesterday. Took the sun shades down around the pool, generally secured all loose stuff, and am going to see about taking down a dead tree tomorrow perhaps. Other than that, we are prepared for anything up to a few weeks without power with no problems (probably beyond that too actually).

It will be interesting to see how wound up this thing gets prior to landfall. It is looking very healthy on the satellite imagery…

Windy has a cool site that shows the predicted paths based on whatever model you want to use. Along the bottom of the page is a timeline that lets you scroll through the days…

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Awesome app-great for sailing … if I still have a boat after this brouhaha.

Hanger200, at the current prediction, are you anchored north or south of landfall?

My Andrew story: My best sailing buddy, known him since my time at the U, lives in Hollywood FL, and kept his J/24 at the Coconut Grove Sailing Club. At the time of hurricane Andrew, I was living in Munich, but had been spending Jan-Mar in South Florida. I had left my Mitsubishi Montero at Art’s house in Hollywood, which sits in between Miami and Ft Lauderdale.

Art is originally from the Wilmington area and has been a life long bachelor, I’m guessing mostly because he prefers to spend his weekends either sailing or anchored at the Yacht club bar. Let’s say that we’ve chosen very different paths in life, but I love the guy, not to mention that he is the only friend that I’ve stayed in touch with since college. As far as sailing goes, Art has a number wins, including Ft Lauderdale - Key West, has stories about crewing for Dennis Conner in NYC, etc. The usual tall tails told over rum runners.

Anyway, I called him from Germany a day before Andrew obliterated South Florida, including destruction of Homestead AFB.

I asked him about his beloved J boat, to which he replied that the last track showed the storm turning toward Hollywood. So his boat and the club should be fine. Then he said apologetically, “Sorry buddy, but I have to leave your truck here. I’m taking my F150 tonight and heading a friend’s house in Cutler Ridge. I’ll park it in between the houses and get back as soon as possible.” I said that was OK, I appreciate him letting me leave my truck at his house while I was in Europe, and that I had USAA insurance.

In short, Art didn’t make it back to his house for a week. In the last hours before landfall, Andrew hooked left and basically went right over the subdivision where Art and his friends were gleefully throwing a hurricane party. The next morning, the only thing standing in the party house was a central cinder block wall and the attached bathroom, where most of the revelers huddled. Every other house for miles was flattened. I know, because I flew into Miami about 3 weeks after Andrew to recover my truck and belongings. Ironically, since the storm turned south, my truck was left unscathed. Art said that he found a small palm leave across the hood. His F150, not so much. It had a palm tree stuck through the bed crushing the rear end and the interior was completely gutted by the storm. All of the glass, carpet, door panels, upholstery, roof liner, door speakers, and knobs had been suctioned away. :smile: Karma?

I asked him when he became a little concerned that the storm might be heading their way. He said, “When the house began shaking badly and when we looked in the Florida room and saw all of the furniture levitating.”

Anyway, I won’t go into all of the details of the storm’s aftermath, but I will say that going to check on friends in South Miami, I passed subdivision after subdivision that were completely flattened. Not a house standing as far as one could see.

Art’s J/24? He got a call from a salvage company four or five weeks after Andrew. They found it on the bottom of one of those canals South of Miami about a 1/4 mile inland. He collected insurance and bought a Pearson 34, which he said was better for entertaining and that if he felt the need to race, would crew on one of his friend’s bigger boats. Funny, because over the years I crewed for him in the Pearson a few times, none of which won us more than a severe hangover.

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Thanks for the thoughts and the story. We should get clipped by the NW part of the storm as it makes landfall. The farther north, the worse it will be for us. The boat is insured for what I paid for it so…if it goes, it goes.

The Navy sortied from NOB Norfolk yesterday and today…I thought briefly about moving my boat over there…but there are still probably some base MAAs around that would frown on my tying up to a carrier pier.

Our (Virgina’s) “brilliant” governor ordered a mandatory evacuation for low lying areas as of 0800 this morning. Did it help? Well if he wanted to induce a state of panic, he succeeded.

Plus, Hampton, like most cities has its law abiding citizens and its criminal element. Many of the law abiding citizens are following the mandatory evacuation order leaving the criminal element two days of good weather to burglarize their homes before the storm hits.

Fortunately in my neighborhood, (law abiding citizens) most, including myself, have chose to ignore the “mandatory” order and will watch over the homes of the people who decided to go.

Our concern is flooding from rain. That said, this is my “back yard” taken just a few minutes ago at 1.6 ft below mean low water (the tide ½ way point).

Yes it looks like a lot of water…and it is. However, this is a creek, off a river, off the Chesapeake Bay…it can (and has) take on a lot of water before seriously overflowing, especially at low tide (you can see the bottom in many parts). We are about 5 ft above this.

Still, planning for the worse, we are taking everything we might want to see again, to the second floor…of course esci Flightsim Publications World HQ is already on the second floor.:sunglasses:…but we still need to move the bar…well the liquor and mixers from the bar…up to the second deck. :thinking:

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Houston South Carolina…we have a problem…”

Does mother nature abhor a beach? Certainly seems so.

Never turn your back on the sea is the saying I guess…

So what makes the Euro forecasting model far superior to the American model??

ps anybody need bread? I got a bunch :slight_smile:

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Seriously though, I hope all of you Mudspikers stay safe out there. I worry about you guys lol

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Updated American model prediction:

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