Tropical Storm / Hurricane Florence / update Michael

Been watching this one with interest as its spinning way out there in the Atlantic. A lot of the forecast models are starting to shift it further west and south which is worrisome. The past 48 hours of high level shear haven’t been kind to the storm, taking it down to near tropical storm status from what was once a Category 4, but I think it is supposed to ramp back up as it finds more favorable conditions.

Watching too… probably cat 2 or 3 hitting the Carolina’s… I’m more worried about the next wave, last year at this time wife and I was suppose to take our first motorcycle trip down to the keys, well we all know what happened then, we’re leaving in 2 weeks to try again, lol… this may mess it up, AGAIN.

But I’m personally not worried unless a major hurricane, 3 or higher… nothing below scares me. :wink:

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Yep, Florence has my attention.

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Rumor yesterday was the forecast was calling for 3-5 inches of rain Sunday night for our area… last time we got that much we had some serious flooding. Could be interesting.

If @BeachAV8R and @Navynuke99 would like to help out a Mudspike comrade, I sure could use a couple of crewman to do some storm avoidance for Sea Star with me, while I’m still on the safe semi-circle side of the storm. Peanut butter sandwiches and all the juice boxes you can drink! Come on up from NC! :wink:

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Add in the fact that there are 2 tropical storms lined up behind Florence, it could make for an interesting month.

oh dag nab it image

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I might be battening down my own hatches! I have a couple trees near the house that are dead that I am probably going to take down. I’m going to have my residential propane tank filled too…I have a 8.5kw generator if it ends up going all Hugo on us. I’ll have to get it all done early though since they might press me into evacuating people toward Mon or Tuesday…

Ooof…I hope this GFS forecast doesn’t hold up. Stalling right there is going to push so much water up the Chesapeake Bay…and the Outer Banks may not be accessible for months…

Interesting site that shows coastal flooding levels based on the predicted path and strength. Obviously, this will change as the path is refined, so it is a site worth revisting:

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/

I still remember flying down to New Orleans after Katrina when we sent our mobile hospital unit down there. We got a tour of the destruction from our FEMA guy. Surge is no joke. They found a body that had washed up on the ROOF of the local Walmart.

I will be out of comms for a while as I work to take all the topside windage off the boat–sails, the boom and unnecessary rigging have to go, what’s left needs to be synced tight and locked down, double up mooring lines, ensure my bilge pump is ready, add more fenders…its a floating dock so at least I’ve got that in my favor.

…sort of wondering why I didn’t just buy Boat Simulator instead. (sigh)

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Cheaper then a boat too…maybe

https://store.steampowered.com/app/552920/Sailaway__The_Sailing_Simulator/

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Stay safe over there!

Good luck @Hangar200 - I wonder what the Navy is planning to do there at Norfolk (if anything)…

Hurricane sorts from port. All the ships that can get underway head to sea to ride it out. The aircraft at NAS Oceana & NAS Norfolk head to Midwest bases like Wright Pat

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Yes good luck Hanger200. Not sure which is worse, dock or moored.

A distinct eyewall has emerged and the storm is resisting any northward movement, shifting the impact more toward Myrtle Beach. My brother and his family live there so I’m encouraging them to leave before the contraflow traffic gets nuts…

Latest Euro model landfall…

Well, if it does come in at Myrtle Beach and move NW…it will pass over Charlotte too. If it is a Category 4 or 5, it could be another Hugo type storm. I’ve got a propane generator that I can run off my residential propane tank…so I’ll be good for several weeks with regards to powering fridge, computer, stove…stuff like that. We have a 20,000 gallon pool and my hiking gravity filter…so no worries there either.

Our community is pretty deeply embedded in the woods with lots of property between houses. If there is any wind at all we will lose power…there are tons of trees bordering the power lines.

Sure wish I had preemptively had my solar array able to power the house independently from the grid.

Stay safe to all affected by this storm.

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Of course it did. I just spent all of Sunday “Hurricanizing” my boat - removed all sails and other “don’t get wet” stuff from the boat, took down the boom and boomvang to below decks, tied off the wheel, added extra fenders, secured the running rigging, etc. - got soaked by passing showers…so of course all that will become unnecessary!

For @chipwich, anchored out from the pier is worse. Moored dockside, for small boats, the only potential damage is from banging against the pier. So you snug it up, add fenders, double up your mooring lines, etc. Plus we have floating docks so they rise with the storm surge as the boat rises.

Anchored out you have to rely on the anchor to hold, which it probably won’t. (On small boats like mine you have the anchor attached to several feet of anchor chain (7 in my case) which is attached to many feet of anchor line (rope) which gets tied off to a cleat on the boat.

To anchor properly, you want the anchor flukes to dig in in a fairly horizontal fashion, with most of the anchor chain lying on the bottom, and the anchor line making a nice curve up to the boat. The dug-in anchor and weight of the chain are what keeps the boat secured to the bottom. As the storm surge lifts the boat, the anchor line and anchor chain start to be lifted vertically with more anchor chain coming off the bottom (less weight). Eventually the anchor starts to drag.

When anchored, you weathervane into the current and somewhat into the wind. As the current shifts (tides going in and out) you swing around. This is called the swing circle, it is a function of the current, length of anchor chain & line, and depth of water. When you anchor, you need to ensure you swing circle is clear of any obstructions, especially other boats.

When you start to drag anchor, your swing circle moves. Unless you are on the boat and can take corrective action–namely getting underway and resetting your anchor–you have a good chance of obstacles “entering” the swing circle, which you will eventually hit as tide, surge and wind do their thing.

Large ships (i.e. Navy ships) get underway and go out to sea to avoid the hurricane. They are too large and their superstructures provide too much “windage” to be safely moored pier-side. They will bang against the pier and be damaged.

If / when the fleet sorties, it will head generally NE until the storm makes landfall, then loop around behind it to come back into port.