Again…
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WTAF is going on?! Never seen anything like this*…
*And I mean such a sequence of events in the aeronautical field…
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No fatalities and only minor injuries… That’s the main thing.
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It was windy as heck today.
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The crosswind component was supposedly near max for the CRJ. Add snow/ice covered runway and well…………
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ATC Comms
This is an interesting phenomenon. All my life people would say “Crashes come in threes.” (This was when aviation accidents were far more common.) Of course this isn’t true. Why I believe it seems that way is this: A spectacular crash occurs and it focuses the mind solidly on aviation. Meanwhile, the standard number of low- or non-fatal aviation accidents occur worldwide nearly daily. Usually we hear of them and just as quickly forget. But when a big one has recently happened and the mind is focused, we instead remember. That remembrance creates the illusion of a pattern.
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I did some digging (and this purely my own work, not to be confused with the inevitable official investigation). The max crosswind component is 37 knots for the CRJ-900 and that is on a dry runway with good braking action i.e. ideal conditions. I don’t have exact numbers, but that number,37, is apparently manufacturer (Bombardier) advertised. It is common for airlines to reduce that a few knots and supposedly Endeavor Air (the operator in question) uses 35 knots.
The moment you throw in contaminants like rain, compacted snow, slush, standing water and/or ice, the limitation goes down. The next crosswind limitation on a wet runway is around 22 knots. I don’t have the official CRJ-900 crosswind limitation chart, but the point is the X-wind limitation goes down as you add more adverse braking action conditions: good, medium, poor, nil…… We will eventually find out the runway conditions through the investigation. Judging by the videos and pics, the runway conditions did not look all that great.
The tower controller that cleared Endeavor 4819 to land stated the winds 270 at 23 knots, gust to 33 for runway 23. That is a 18 knot headwind, up to 26 with gust and 15 knot crosswind, gusting to 22 knots. That is approaching whatever potential crosswind limitation existed for the given runway conditions. And being this aircraft’s wing sits low to the ground, one bad gust of wind and I can see how easy it would be to strike the wing and lose control. Control inputs, along with many other data points, from the Flight Data Recorder will be critical.
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Normally I agree that there’s an illusion of prevalence caused by overreporting of small accidents after a major accident, e.g. tips touching, but an entire aircraft flipping updside down is a bit more than tips touching.
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No question. This one was a disaster that only luck rendered not so disastrous. My point was that some will see a pattern where none exists.
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Toronto airport CCTV captured it
Updated post. 18 Feb: Clearest footage of the crash so far:
https://x.com/airmainengineer/status/1891800990317191428?mx=2
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That looked like a very firm touchdown…
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So firm that the No. 2 Engine mount broke, maybe…? Hard to tell from the video, but that explosion comes directly after touchdown.
Edit. Nah, videos show No. 2 still hanging on there… Could it have been the spar or gear that ruptured a tank, that cause the flames?
I remember reading an article many years ago saying that regardless of the incredible safety statistics in commercial aviation, we would still have to get accustomed to see an airliner crash every month, at the rate the number of flights are increasing…
Anyway, allow me to promote The Aviation Safety Network, from Flight Safety Foundation.
It lists every accident, incident and mishap that is reported, for big and small aircraft.
It’s a good resource.
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ASN’s metric with the 5-year accident average is interesting. 2025’s accident rate is 4x the 5-year average (commercial flights, fatal incidents).
Yeah, but with numbers that small, small changes look big. Still early days.
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Wow. It’s a miracle that there were no casualties. This could have easily ended in a disaster.
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Clearest footage of the crash so far:
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I’m not religious but … Holy Christ.
Myself and @Victork2 have been discussing this … it looks to me like a very heavy landing which collapsed the right side main gear which then allowed the wing to hit the ground …just from what I saw in that video … totally amazing and a miracle that everyone got out
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